Humala set to win first round of Peruvian presidential elections

UPDATE (11 April 2011): RESULTS

Ollanta Humala: 28.06 percent
Keiko Fujimori: 22.49 percent
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski: 22.29 percent
Votes counted: 64.3 percent
Source: National Electoral Processes Office (ONPE) via Reuters

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After narrowly losing the presidency to Alan García in 2006, leftist candidate Ollanta Humala looks set to win tomorrow’s first round of presidential elections in Peru.

Back then, he wore a red t-shirt and spouted anti-capitalist rhetoric, happy to show off his friendship with Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez. Like the Venezuelan president, Humala staged an unsuccessful coup in 2000 against then president Alberto Fujimori, enraged with the corrupt government.

Now, the 48-year-old Humala wears a shirt and tie and refuses to admit any kinship with Venezuela’s fiery socialist president, or any of Latin American left-leaning leaders. His policies are more moderate, his language more encompassing.

This has led Humala to surge ahead in polls, though he will face stiff competition from Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former president Alberto, who is currently serving a 25-year prison sentence for corruption and human rights abuses. Her campaign is largely based on her father’s popularity when he presided between 1990 and 2000 and she is happy to bask in his legacy. Her core support comes from those in the country’s interior, grateful that her father saved them from Maoist guerillas in the 1990s.

Often difficult to call, Peru’s elections this year also feature former president Alejandro Toledo as well as his former prime minister Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. An Ipsos Apoyo poll conducted earlier this week shows Humala leading with 28%, Fujimori at 21% leaving Toledo and Kuczynski with 18% each. Figures have fluctuated however, and nothing is certain in tomorrow’s election.

To win the presidency, a candidate must achieve 50% of the vote. With this looking unlikely, a run-off between the top two candidates is scheduled for 5th June.

Once a shoe-shiner in a poor coastal town, Toledo studied at Stanford before working at the UN and World Bank. When president between 2000 and 2006, he initiated many free trade agreements and is credited with restoring democracy to Peru, as well as building up its economic base.

While popular for his indigenous roots and the legacy of his previous presidency, Toledo’s career has been dogged with criticism of his fondness for whisky and alleged cocaine use. This has pushed former supporters towards Humala.

Kuczynski was once a Wall Street executive who has been slammed on the campaign trail for his dual citizenship in the United States, though he has vowed to give up his US passport if elected. The 72-year-old was prime minister towards the end of Toledo’s presidency after studying at both Oxford and Princeton. His pale skin has earned him the nickname ‘El Gringo’.

But it is Humala who is taking the lead. The former lieutenant colonel is proud of his military service and often uses it to demonstrate his commitment to Peru. He is keen to tone down links with the region’s left-wing governments. Instead, Humala is aligning himself with Brazil’s popular former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whose advisors he has been in talks with in order to mould this campaign.

Human rights campaigners are concerned for a run-off between Humala and Fujimori. Humala was accused of human rights abuses during his time in the military while Fujimori’s first act as president, if she wins, is likely to be to pardon the human rights abuses for which her father is in prison.

Many in Peru will still be undecided on how to vote. Another candidate, former mayor of Lima Luiz Castañeda, is sinking in polls at around 11% but no one can be discounted in this tight and very volatile race which has seen four different candidates top the polls in the last six month alone. Even if Humala wins tomorrow, he may still lose the presidency which he has craved for more than a decade.

THE CANDIDATES:

Ollanta Humala, 48 (Gana Perú) The markets are nervous at the success of this friend of Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez. However, he has toned down rhetoric from his previous presidential attempt, when happy to admit he was a “rebel” and ally of the Venezuelan president. He promises to respect the independence of the central bank as well as Peru’s free trade agreements, though will tax foreign mining companies up to 45% of profits, up from 30%, as well as raise oil and gas income. Mining accounts for 60% of Peru’s exports. He is also keen to control rather than eradicate coca crops; Peru is the world’s number one grower of the core ingredient of cocaine. Those over 65 will benefit from Humala’s proposed small non-contributory pension scheme.

Keiko Fujimori, 35 (Fuerza 2011) Daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, the young candidate is happy to bask in his legacy. Her policies will follow those of her right-wing father, she says, though has insisted she will respect human rights. Her father is currently languishing in jail for corruption and human rights abuses. He is credited, however, with opening up Peru’s economy as well as providing housing programmes and soup kitchens for the poor. Her manifesto is business-led, promising 7% growth each year with the promotion of free trade. She promises to bring back the death penalty, abolished in Peru in 1979.

Alejandro Toledo, 65 (Perú Posible) During his 2001-2006 presidency, Toledo is credited with bringing democracy to Peru, as well as initiating many free trade agreements that led to Peru’s growing economy. He is more liberal on social issues than the other candidates, the only candidate pushing for civil unions for same-sex couples as well as relaxing drug laws. The poor will benefit from his promise to give land titles to those who live in the city’s shantytowns. He hopes for growth of 6% each year along with simplified rules on tax exemptions.

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, 72 (Alianza por el Gran Cambio) Like Humala, Kuczynski was not too long ago an outsider in this race. Nicknamed ‘El Gringo’ for his light skin, he has promised to give up his dual US citizenship if elected. The former Wall Street executive promises to eliminate extreme poverty within a decade, promising all Peruvians clean drinking water. He also hopes to improve security through a harsh approach to crime and drug trafficking. The civil service will be made more professional under Kuczynski who will also decentralise the finance ministry, allowing regional government more authority.